Hoo boy. This is starting to make a lot of sense now. I think I’m starting to piece together why Trump refused to give up being president. I’ve still got a lot to go through, but here it is. It wasn’t ego, hubris, entitlement, “I’m always a winner” or anything else like that. It’s because he was financially dependent upon being president and he needed to keep his taxes hidden.
Remember when Trump said “Sure, I’ll release my taxes” and then a month later he said he couldn’t because of an IRS audit? Anyone remember the IRS saying audits don’t prevent tax info from being made public?
I’ll condense this as much as I can but it’s still going to be a lot.
Trump's businesses have been losing a lot of money consistently for years. Between 1985 and 1989, it wasn't too bad. It started with a $51.4 million loss and decreased to just losing $4.5M the following year, but after that it was $99.6M, $46.6M and $90.3M. Then in 1990 the losses ballooned to $400.3M and kept growing until it was $918.5M in 1994 and had negligible improvement to a $915.7M loss in 1995. Grand total for those 11 years is a loss of $4.76 billion.
If that had been publicly known back then, would people still have viewed Trump as a winner, or would it have hurt his brand? The latter, and even though he was still on the TV show The Apprentice a decade later, his brand was becoming less prominent. He needed something to make his brand relevant again and to take care of what was coming in the future.
When did Trump announce he was running for President? 2015. What is the maximum length of time a President can serve as per the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution? Eight years. Remember when Trump said he deserved a third term? That would push his time in office to 12 years, ending in 2029. How many loans did he have coming due between 1995 and 2029? At least 11, for a total of $1.095 billion.
(The above two paragraphs have updated since I first posted this last night after I realized I got the year wrong for his campaign announcement. I don’t have info right now on how many other loans he may have paid off between 1995 and 2015, but that billion+ he owes is correct as of 2019-2020.)
The actual amount owed is likely a lot higher because he used a standard entry for several of them on his disclosure forms. You can skip saying exactly how much you owe and just list it as "Over $50,000,000.00". One of the loans is structured so the principal is paid at the end of the loan and he's just been paying the interest. He's probably been counting on refinancing it again, but he's got over $100M coming due on it next year. In September of this year, he has about $162M coming due.
Another loan has some financial experts baffled. It’s an “Over $50M” amount that Trump loaned himself from the Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC company he owns. He says he purchased the debt from other companies. For some reason, he’s paying $4.4M a year on interest to his other company when he could just cancel the debt, yet CUA doesn’t make enough money to be worth listing as income, even though the interest paid from Trump to himself does count as income. CUA makes between $1K and $25K according to Trump. Other experts say it could be “debt parking”, which could be tax fraud if the loan doesn’t actually exist, or it’s owed to some other company.
The CUA loan is also labeled as a “springing” loan. Those are loans people and businesses get that are a bad credit risk. They often have harsh repayment terms if certain criteria aren’t met. So Trump loaned himself the money but considers himself a bad credit risk. Uh, yeah. What he says he owes to his own company that doesn’t make any money probably does belong to some other lender.
So what income does Trump actually have? His disclosure notices for while he was president say he earned over $1.6B, but again could be higher because of using "Over $5,000,000" entries for the income report. Almost a third of that is at Mar-a-Lago, The Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C., and the Doral, Bedminster and Trump National golf courses, which, surprise surprise, were places where those wanting to curry favor with Trump paid a premium to stay there.
Ah, but did he actually make that much money? Maybe not. For the portion of the 40 Wall Street property he has, Trump’s tax report says it earned $882K in 2017 and cost $744K for property insurance (year not specified), but loan officials were told it earned $1.67M and the property insurance was $457K. And he doesn’t actually own that part of the property. It’s owned by a German family. Trump has the right to rent part of it to tenants. He paid that family $1.65M for the rights in 2015, yet he told the loan servicer it was only $1.24M. When ProPublica looked at his tax reports and compared them to his loan documents, it averaged to telling tax officials only 81% of what he told lenders he earned.
There’s other examples of discrepancies, such as either at 40 Wall Street or at the Trump International Hotel and Tower where occupancy rates were first listed at 58.9% and jumped to about 95% when he was applying for a loan, but city property tax officials were told a few years earlier it was already at 81%. Then in 2016, both numbers started syncing together.
There's more, but let's put those on hold. What's other reasons why he might have fought so hard to stay as president?
Well, how about that he’s still fighting to get a tax rebate from the IRS. If he loses, he has to pay $100M to the federal government.
How about that even though COVID-19 affected all kinds of businesses across the nation, when you look at the area some of Trump’s businesses are in and the type of businesses they are, his are not doing as well as the average? That rules out the pandemic as to why they’ve got problems.
How about that he knew if he became president, he could earn a lot of money for his businesses? He was going to shoot for the top and rake in the dough. And he did. He got elected, hung onto his businesses instead of selling them to avoid conflicts of interest, emolument violations, etc., and he watched those businesses benefit from him being president.
But a former president doesn’t rake in as much as a current president does. A former president doesn’t have the protection of being in office to keep his finances hidden. The brand of a former president isn’t as prestigious as a current president’s brand. A former president isn’t at the top any more.
And so you have someone with a lot of motivation to remain as president trying to do exactly that. Someone who had a lot of debts coming due very quickly on businesses that aren’t doing as well as he says they are. Debts he likely planned on never having to pay because he could keep putting them off or refinancing them or getting debt forgiveness because he’s Trump. Someone who saw that if he were a former president, the money coming in would start slowing down, making it harder for him to pay what he can’t get out of.
Which it has. One of his hotels now has so little activity it’s being described as feeling like a ghost town.
So how is Trump going to make up for the money that has gone away since he became a former president and because of what happened at the Capitol on January 6th?
He’s turned to political fundraising but he’s got it structured so he doesn’t actually have to spend any of the money on things related to politics. It can go to anything he wants, whether it’s being used to pay off his loans or to go into his own pockets and the pockets of his relatives. Back in December when he raised about $37.4M, roughly 1% went to politics-related efforts.
He continues to push his claims of voter fraud and a stolen election. “Hey, Mr. Trump? Your good friend and supporter Rush Limbaugh died. Would you like to say a few words about him?” “Nah, I’ll just keep repeating my claims over and over again.”
He hints he might run for president again in 2024 but doesn’t actually say he will. That way, he can keep taking in donations from people who think they’re supporting a political candidate. When he walks away and those donors say, “But, but, but… What about the 2024 race?”, he can say, “I didn’t say I was running for president again, did I? You just assumed I was.”
A lot of what Trump earned in the past didn’t come from his hotels, golf courses or things like that. It came from licensing the use of this name. It shouldn’t be a surprise then that he sent a cease and desist letter to the Republican National Committee to keep them from using his name and likeness for their fundraising. They can since he’s a public figure (though also now a private citizen), but he doesn’t want them to because they aren’t paying a licensing fee for it.
In fact, he doubled down at CPAC and in subsequent messages said that the only way America will continue to be great again is by making donations through his website and nowhere else. “Send the money directly to me because no one else knows how to keep this Greatness going.” The RNC seems to have caved in and will have one of their events at Mar-a-Lago.
That sounds promising, but remember what finally did Al Capone in? It was his taxes.
The Supreme Court has made it possible to get at the tax records Trump’s been fighting to keep hidden. Michael Cohen, former attorney for Trump, former vice president of the Trump Organization and personal counsel to Trump, now convicted felon and disbarred lawyer that the Trump White House dismissed and discredited previously, has met with the Manhattan district attorney seven times and may be meeting with them an eighth time. John W. Dean, President Nixon’s White House counsel and was involved in the Watergate investigation, has said you don’t meet with someone like Cohen that many times if you’re not planning on indicting the people they have knowledge about.
Trump’s been standing at the top of a house of cards he built, boasting for decades how successful he is as he added card after card of debt. But at the bottom of the structure, one of those cards isn’t a card. It’s a manila folder labeled “Donald J. Trump’s tax records”.
He fought for years to keep that folder closed. Now the folder is about to be opened and when it is, someone’s going to pull it out from the bottom of the stack. The house of cards won’t stay standing long afterward. The people that get the most favorable treatment are the ones that get in line early to testify.
How many of the people that have been loyal to Trump will continue to stay loyal once they get a good look at what’s coming for him? How many of them will nope right out of there to save their own skins? How many of them will retreat to a safe distance and watch the downfall of The Donald?