South Africa burns (2019)

Keepalive++

So a couple of conspiracies seems to be pointing toward the 24th of september being a key date in Germany, as admitted by a german parasitepolitician.

Nobody knows for sure what will happen, but coupling everything together, the energy shortages, high electricity prices, winter approaching, looming food shortages etc, one can only surmise that It Is Not Gonna Be Good™.

Over here in South Africa, we have lost half of our electricity generating capacity virtually overnight, and the situation just seem to worsen. Exacerbating this is the government’s insistence on employing blacks only, but most of these employees does not have the required skill or knowledge. If you’re white, your chance of getting employed is like a snowflake’s chances in Hell.

Already there are talks that some parts of the country will be disconnected from the electrical grid to ration electricity. What will happen then, is anybody’s guess, but my wager is that it won’t be good.

Sleeping with one eye open and one ear listening is starting to become a habit.

So far things are calm, but may change.

Will try to post updates, internet permitting etc.

Still hopeful that it’ll blow over and nothing bad happen, but it pays to be prepared and take nothing for granted.

Love you all, and I appreciate the good times we’ve had so far.

Like Terminator said : “I’ll be back”.

4 Likes

Keep your powder dry man. Good luck, it’s going to be a mess. The Gods of the Copybook Headings are coming.

keepalive++

3 Likes

Things are fairly quiet, except for sporadic small protests and lootings, nothing serious at this stage.

Everybody’s on edge with rotational blackouts, and crime have picked up significantly in areas during blackout periods.

1 Like

Stay safe @Ook.

3 Likes

Still have got power outages, but it seems as if they are makening progress with fixening the problematic coal-fired plants.

At least my SHTF kit is all prepped.

2 Likes

Joy of joys.

Wednesday they blocked the N14 highway, causing a major traffic jam as world+dog is trying to get to their destination (either PTA or Krugersdorp) and is forced to use the back roads.

4 other colleagues and myself was also affected.

Yeasterday things was quiet, no unrests etc.

Today, they’re back. Started sometime around 0300, highway is blocked again.

This time I’ll just use another road and bypass the mayhem.

Oh, and loadshedding. Seems we’ll have it on a permanent basis now, because of incompetence.

Viva ANC, Viva.

1 Like

Or they could just, you know, build more power plants.

1 Like

Get this.

Due to their incompetence, and cadre deployment, the ANC have caused rolling loadsheddings.

Everybody’s pissy.

Now the ANC want to implement a State of Emergency, and “fix” things, but most likely they will suspend the Constitution, and Do Very Unconstitutional Things.

If that happens, worst-case scenario will be civil war.

We hope that this path will not be taken, but if it do happen, we will not go quietly into the night.

1 Like

I will have to tell the story of Medupi and Kusile…

Copypasta from Wikipedia :

Medupi Power Station is a dry-cooled coal-fired power station built by Eskom near Lephalale in Limpopo province, South Africa. The name chosen for the station, Medupi, is a Sepedi word which means “gentle rain”.[1] With an installed capacity of 4,764 MW, when fully operational it should be the 8th largest coal-fired power station in the world.

Medupi was conceived as Project Alpha in 2007, with only three units planned to total 2,400 MW and estimated cost of R32 billion.[3] The design was changed at a late stage in 2007 and doubled in size to 4,764 MW.[citation needed]

Kusile Power Station (formerly known as the Bravo Power Station) in South Africa is a coal-fired power plant by state electricity utility Eskom in Mpumalanga.

Reality :

Up to date both power stations have not achieved full 100% output due to design defects and issues.

Medupi build timeline :

Construction timeline

Completion of the first two units was expected by 2012 but various delays impacted progress. The first 794 MW unit was commissioned and handed over to Eskom Generation on 23 August 2015. Units 5 to 1 was completed at approximately nine-month intervals thereafter.

Medupi Power Station development of the coal yard 2014

Development of the coal yard, early 2014

Medupi Power Station fabrication of boilers mid 2014

Fabrication of a boiler structure, mid 2014

Medupi Power Station chimney installation of cans, mid 2011

Fabrication of thermal chimney, mid 2011

  • 18 July 2008, first structural concrete poured.
  • 21 November 2008, first three air-cooled condenser columns completed.
  • August 2009, Unit 6 boiler lift shaft completed.
  • 9 February 2010, first structural steel erected at Unit 6 boiler.
  • 12 August 2010, Chimney South concrete slide completed to a height of 220m.
  • November 2010, Chimney North concrete slide completed to a height of 220m.
  • May 2011: Chimney South first flue cans lined with borosilicate glass installed.
  • October 2011, upgrade of D1675 access road completed.
  • 8 September 2011, 10 000 ton coal silo completed.
  • 21 November 2011, auxiliary boiler completed.
  • 10 February 2012, direct-current supplies energised.
  • 27 November 2012, first 24-hour performance test of 5,4 km overland coal conveyor.[14]
  • September 2013, Unit 4 generator motor threaded into stator.
  • September 2013, wet run of submerged scraper conveyor conducted, readying boilers for first fire.
  • November 2014 overland ash conveyor commissioned.
  • 18 February 2015, then Public Enterprises Minister, Lynne Brown, announced first unit, no 6 turbine was running at optimal speed of 3000 revolutions per minute.[15][16]
  • 22 February 2016, no 5 turbine undergoes load testing.[17] Commercial operation began on 3 April 2017.
  • 2016, Primary Coal stockyard and conveyor commissioned.
  • December 2016, Ngwedi substation transformer commissioned (part of Medupi Power Station Integration Project).[18]
  • 28 November 2017, Unit 4 was commissioned.[19]
  • 6 June 2018, announced that Unit 3 had entered commercial operation.[19]
  • 9 October 2018, announced that Unit 2 had been synchronised.[20] By November 2019, this unit had reached full commercial operation.[21][22]
  • 27 August 2019, final unit achieved synchronisation.[23]
  • Peripheral works such as overflow coal yards has a expected completion date of 2021.[24]
  • October 2020, No-obligation request for information bid issued to gain insight into flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) technologies currently available and to assess their potential suitability for deployment.[25]
  • 31 July 2021, Eskom announced that the plant had achieved commercial operation status.[26]

Kusile build timeline :

Construction timeline

Initially expected to take 6 years to complete, the project was not expected to complete Unit 1 until 2017 (approximately 8 years after initial works began) and the entire project not until 2021.[4]

  • 5 June 2007: Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism issued a positive Record of Decision.[5]
  • February 2008: Hitachi Power Africa awarded the boiler contract worth R18.5 billion. "[6]
  • February 2008: Alstom S&E awarded the turbine island works contract valued at R13 billion. "[6]
  • 14 April 2011: Black & Veatch Corp. Awarded approval for $805.6 million in financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.[7][8]
  • 31 May 2011:Export-Import Bank of the United States approves $805 million (R5.78 billion) loan.
  • October 2014: 300 ton 910 MVA Generator Step-up Transformer placed on its foundation, assembled with all its Auxiliary systems and filled with 128 000 Litres of Mineral Oil. All Electrical integrity tests were performed successfully to confirm that the transformer was ready to receive power.
  • 10 March 2017: Unit 1 achieves commercial power.[9]
  • 7 July 2017: Unit 2 was synchronised to the national grid.
  • 16 March 2019: Unit 3 was synchronised to the national grid.[10]
  • 30 October 2020: Unit 2 reaches commercial operation.[11]
  • 31 March 2021: Unit 3 reaches commercial operation.[12]
  • 23 December 2021: Unit 4 connected to the national grid.[13][14]
  • 31 May 2022: Unit 4 reaches commercial operation[15]

Delays and defects

The dates for full commercial operation were shifted numerous times mostly due to:

  • Labour disputes:
    • May 2011: Eleven contractor vehicles, seven offices, two large mobile cranes, and the west wing of the KCW office block were set alight, vehicles stoned, and offices and stores looted.[16]
    • February 2014: 1400 employees reported absent.[17]
    • 10 August 2018: A fire breaks out at the station amidst tensions with unions over pay increases causing damage.[18]
  • Technical issues such as:
    • Boiler design: high temperatures that the spray water-cooling system could not cope with [19]
    • Fabric filter plant: excessive wear of bags, resulting in blockages [19]
    • Coal mills: not meeting operational requirements, therefore requiring a doubling of servicing [19]
    • Flue ducts: collapse of a flue duct, rendering Units 1, 2 & 3 inoperable [20]

This resulted in Kusile and Medupi considered as some of the worst-performing units in Eskom’s fleet.[19] In February 2019, Eskom GM for group technology Titus Mathe reported R8 billion would be needed to fix design defects at Medupi and Kusile.[21]

Corruption controversy

In November 2019 South African investigative journalist Pieter-Louis Myburgh published an article in the Daily Maverick detailing an alleged slush fund corruption scandal involving Eskom executives and at least four contractors.[28] The scandal involved contracts worth a combined R10 billion resulting in an estimated R75 million being lost due to irregular activities.[28] By the time of the publication of Myburgh’s article the construction of Kusile was five years past its original completion date and an estimated R80 billion (equivalent to US$5.4 billion) over budget.[28]

Unit 4 generator explosion

On 9 August 2021, in the second week after Eskom announced that Medupi had attained commercial operation, Medupi Unit 4 was extensively damaged in a hydrogen explosion[35][36] which caused a loss of 700 MW in generating capacity.[37] The cost of repair was estimated at up to R2 billion,[37] or up to R40 billion[38] over two years.

Cost escalation

The initial expected cost of R80 billion (2007 Rands),[7] was revised to R154 billion (2013 Rands).[39][40][41] By 2019, the cost of Medupi was independently estimated at R234 billion (2019 Rands).[42][43] Some of the primary reasons for the cost escalation was the importing of components affected by a fluctuating Rand exchange rate, redesigns and rework as well as labour disputes and standing time. Due to cost escalations the African Development Bank has stated that they do not expect the power plant to produce a positive financial return over the course of its lifetime.[44]

And there are some people here who’ll want to go nuclear - but I’m firmly against that, given the track record of Medupi and Kusile (and also Hinckley Point C) - who knows what astronomical figure will be reached in the end, and I would not touch that nuke plant with a barge pole lest it do a Chernobyl.

So now Sod’s Law has also kicked in here on my side of the world.

Our beloved (cough cough) grabbamint have decreed that a State of Disaster is now in effect.

This means that the Constitution is suspended. Yup, big :poop: coming.

The “cause” is the continuous loadshedding going on, due to too little generating capacity. But it is a flimsy excuse.

But the irony is that it is their dumbassed policies and refusal to build new generating plants that lead us down this particular path.

We all think (the majority of people I’ve talked to) that it is just another thinly veiled excuse and attempt to loot even more funds from the Treasury.

Who knows, maybe the ANC have shot themselves in the foot this time.

Only time will tell.

Y’all know the expression “kick the hornet’s nest”? Maybe it is happening.

3 Likes

Constitution has been suspended?! That’s horrifying.

Oh dear. Another SoD, this time due to flooding.

We’re experiencing above-average rainfall, and flooding in certain areas.

We had that in the western US in January. But the Constitution (neither state nor federal) was never suspended. That’s wild. Stay safe.

2 Likes

Thanks.

Not a fun or a good situation, but we’ll do the best we can.

1 Like

Started Following Ian Cameron on Twitter. Holy crap, the things you just don’t hear about because everyone is focused on how screwed up we are.

1 Like

Still have some areas that are flooded, but the rains have stopped a couple of days ago.

But now our current issue is that the power supply is very constrained, and we are on a rotational schedule.

Unfortunately electrical reticulation (especially high voltage stuff) does not kindly take to being switched on and off on a regular basis, and this causes prolonged outages while the damage is repaired.

This will have a major impact on the food chain, and this winter may be quite interesting.

Doom and gloom aside, we’re still doing ok, trying our hardest to ignore the sword of damocles hanging threateningly above our heads.

2 Likes